New research released today by Global Strategy Group (GSG) and a coalition of leading environmental organizations – NRDC Action Fund, Climate Power, EDF Action, and LCV – simulated a debate between Democrats and Republicans on climate and clean energy issues and showed Democrats are positioned to win on these issues at the ballot box. Key findings include:
- Climate and energy are winning issues for Democrats, especially among swing voters who will decide the 2024 elections. Swing voters strongly prefer the Democratic approach of supporting clean energy development and climate action over Republicans’ narrow focus on increased fossil fuel production – and voters move towards pro-clean energy Democrats when they hear the contrast. In fact, the more swing voters learn about this contrast, the more persuaded they become with Democrats gaining up to a 9-point advantage.
- Across key groups, and even for Republican voters, climate denialism is a clear political liability. That is because voters increasingly see climate change as a major problem, and a majority want to see strong action to combat it. Over three-quarters of voters, including 86% of swing voters, believe climate change is at least a major problem, up 5 points from a year ago. And two-thirds believe that climate change is already having a serious impact on the country.
- Voters reject the false choice between the environment and the economy, and they strongly support stronger environmental regulations. The majority agree that we do not have to choose between building our economy and protecting our environment.
For us at NRDC Action Fund and NRDC Action Votes, this research validates a strategy that helped Democrats in tough races win on environmental issues in 2020 and 2022. Climate denialism will cost Republicans votes because it is seen as a significant character flaw, not just a policy difference. Voters simply do not trust candidates who deny the reality already hitting their pocketbooks with soaring insurance premiums and other fallout from unprecedented severe weather events.
NRDC Action Votes ads have highlighted the weirdness of climate denial, helping defeat candidates who side with Big Oil over science, health, and common sense. In 2022, for example, Dr. Mehmet Oz decided to deny climate change during his Pennsylvania Senate campaign. NRDC Action Votes ran this radio ad in response tying his climate denial to being an out-of-state quack and fraud.
Climate and energy are winning issues for Democrats, especially with the swing voters who will decide the 2024 elections.
That data is clear: swing voters strongly prefer the Democratic approach of supporting clean energy and climate action over Republicans’ focus on boosting fossil fuel production. Voters will move towards pro-clean energy Democrats if we make the contrast clear.
Check out the poll here.
Mike Cassesso is the NRDC Action Fund’s political and advocacy director. Jocelyn Steinberg and Jon Sacks are senior advisors.
